李世默：单极全球化不会再“回光返照”，彻底结束了

作者 :中华军事 2025-12-26 09:10:27 围观 : 次评论

编者按：北京对话咨询委员会主任李世默在多哈论坛指出，2025年成为全球格局转折之年——单极格局终结，多极时代开启。亚洲作为全球南方的最大力量，资源、科技、人口和军事能力俱全，具备全链条发展优势。同时，亚洲多元文化共存，自主发展意识强烈，为推动公平、多元的全球化模式提供可能。李世默呼吁通过文明对话探索合作路径，共同塑造多极化未来。

北京对话获授权发布李世默发言原文及中译版本，东方军事转载，供各位读者参考。

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李世默在北京对话主办的多哈论坛圆桌对话上发言图源：北京对话

【文/ 李世默】

很高兴来到多哈论坛。

我想先花几分钟时间欢迎大家，然后非常期待听到各位的观点。我认为，2025年是具有变革意义的一年。如果再过五到十年，我们回望今年，我相信我们会说：2025年很可能是那个决定性的年份——那些支配我们国家和生活长达三四十年的单极全球化力量，终于真正消失了；不会有“回光返照”，彻底结束了。

这一年发生了很多事情。贸易战方面，中美以及其他国家在科技战上已经进入某种缓和。此外，几天前我饶有兴致地阅读了美国最新的《国家安全战略》，昨天我还听了总统儿子的讲话（虽然我本人不在场，但在屏幕上看了）。天哪，一切都在改变，而且决不会回到过去。所以，我很确定：单极的全球化结束了，很多人应该都有同感。

因此，我认为今年可能是多极的全球化开始形成的年份。但我们今天不是来讨论已经结束的事情，而是来讨论未来可能会发生什么、会如何演变。长期以来，人们一直在说全球南方的解决方案，全球南方要团结起来推动一种新的全球化模式，这当然是一个趋势。

然而，“全球南方”这一概念本身，是以“全球北方”为对立面而存在的。正如拜登政府的一位官员说的“小院高墙”，而所谓“小院”，本质上就是全球北方，由两组国家组成。第一组是大英帝国及其四个“孙子”：美国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰。第二组大致是西欧国家，也就是基督教第一次大分裂后属于西方教会的那些国家。还有一些边缘国家，比如希腊，以及像日本这样的例外。这就是“小院”。

但问题是，眼下我们亲眼看到，这个“小院”正从内部被撕裂。美国与欧洲正在“脱钩”，他们对未来的看法、愿景、价值观、伦理体系方面，都在分道扬镳。

所以，已经没有“全球北方”了，而“全球南方”则处于动态变化之中。这里有许多非常有趣的趋势。当然，亚洲是全球南方中最大、最具活力、最强劲的部分。我认为亚洲有两个主要特征：

第一个特征是：亚洲拥有一切资源。

每个亚洲国家单独来看或许都缺点什么，但加在一起就拥有了一切。美国并非拥有一切，但我们有。我们有自然资源——很多国家有。我们有人口、有工业能力——这是我们的王牌。我们也有科学和技术，尤其是在中国。身处科技投资领域，我深知我们正站在几乎所有科技领域重大突破的前夜，也许未来几年、甚至未来几个月，半导体、生物科技、生物工程、量子科技等都会出现足以让世界震惊的突破。我们还有市场，以及令人惊叹的军事能力。你们最近看过我们的新武器吗？天呐，你们看过的还远不是我们手里最好的，我们将以强大的军事能力震撼世界。

当然，不幸的是，有时候我们会把这些军事力量用在彼此身上。这很不幸。今年五月我在迪拜，从酒店去机场的路上，我在车上打了个盹，醒来时司机问我：“你来自中国吗？”我说是，准备付费。他说：“中国人，不用付钱。”我问为什么。司机来自巴基斯坦——那天我们的战机击落了三架印度“阵风”，没人预料得到。但遗憾的是，我们把力量用在彼此身上，这不好。现在，我们的邻国泰国和柬埔寨之间也在相互施压。我们和印度之间，也非常不幸，没用武器，但也动用了拳头和棍棒——不过如今似乎已经平息了。三天前，我们的海军锁定了一架还是几架日本战机。从军事意义上讲，“锁定”就等于你已经被击落。所以，我们为什么把力量用在彼此身上？这是第一个问题。

第二个特征是：亚洲非常多元。

大家都知道，多元是优势，但也是挑战。美国因为多元而分裂，欧洲因为内部多元而分裂。我们同样多元。我觉得非常有意思的是，当我们的总书记新时代领导人几个月前访问马来西亚时，双方宣布开展一次“儒家文明与伊斯兰文明”的文明对话。我认为这非常重要。中国与伊斯兰世界之间的关系，将会成为新世界中最关键的一组关系之一。双方在价值观和战略上都变得越来越接近，而这只是对话的开始。

在亚洲，我们内部多元、分散，但我们确实共享一个共同点：我们不希望别人告诉我们应该怎么做。我们不希望有一个霸权国家来指挥我们如何搞政治、如何对待女性、谁应该嫁给谁、一个国家应该有多少种性别。我们不要这些。我们希望伊斯兰世界保持伊斯兰特色，我们希望中国保持儒家或社会主义特色，这取决于我们自己的选择。这是我们共同的价值。

那么，通过这种对话，我们能否建立一种真正多元化、多极化的全球化模式？我期待听到各位的意见。

谢谢大家！

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发言原文：

Thank you, Han Hua. Thank you, everyone. Good afternoon. It's a pleasure to be in Doha.

And so I will take just a few minutes to welcome you all, and I'm looking forward to listening to your views. So I think 2025 is... well, should I say was, almost was, 2025 was a transformative year. If we go maybe five, 10 years from now, we look back, I think we will say 2025 was probably the year where fundamental forces have really changed, the unipolar globalization that had run our lives and our countries for the last 30, 40 years, this finally really is over; and there's no more dead cat bouncing, it's finished.

Many things have happened. The trade war, we've now reached a detente between China and the U.S. and other countries with technology war. And then, of course, a few days ago, I read with great interest the new United States national security strategy, and I listened to the president's son yesterday. I wasn't here, but I listened on the screen. Boy, everything is changing, and we're not going back. So no more unipolar globalization, I'm sure. I think many people would agree.

So I think this was the year where potentially a multipolar globalization is now emerging, but we're not here to talk about what is over, we're here to talk about what's to come, what could become of this, and of course, we've always been talking about Global South was the solution, Global South get together and push forward on a new kind of globalization. So that's particularly one trend.

However, Global South, of course, is defined in opposition to the Global North. And as President Biden's men would say, small garden, tall walls; and small garden is essentially the Global North, which included two groups of countries. The first group are essentially the British Empire and four of its grandsons: America, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. And the second group are potentially Western Europe, the group of countries that, after the first division of Christianity, a thousand years ago, belong to the Western church. And there are a few on the margin, like Greece plus Japan. So that's the small garden. But the problem is, as we see before our eyes, the small gardens being blown up from inside. The US and Europe may be decoupling. So they have totally divergent views, divergent visions for the future, divergent values, divergent moralities.

So there's no more Global North, and the Global South is in play, so many very interesting trends. Of course, Asia is the biggest and the most dynamic and the most powerful part of the Global South, and Asia, I would say, has two main characteristics.

The first characteristic is that we have everything in Asia. We have everything. Each of us does not have everything, but together we have everything. America doesn't have everything, but we do. We have natural resources. China doesn't have, but many of you have. We have population. We have industrial capacity. That's our sort of trump card. We have science and technology, especially in my country. I'm in technology investment, I know that we are at the cusp of major breakouts and breakthroughs in all areas in science and technology that will surprise the world in the next just few years, maybe even a few months in everything, semiconductor, biotech, bioengineering, quantum science and technology. We have market and we have incredible military strengths.

Have you seen our new weapons lately? My God, you're not even seeing anything close to the best stuff we got. We will surprise the world with enormous military strengths.

Now the unfortunate thing, of course, is we're using that military on each other sometimes. That's unfortunate. I was in Dubai in May catching a flight from hotel to the airport. I dozed off, and I woke up, and the driver said, are you from China? I said, yes. I was ready to pay him. He said, Chinese, free. I said, why? Guy's from Pakistan. Our fighter jets shot down three Indian Rafales on that day. Amazing, nobody expected this. But unfortunately, we used it on each other. That's not good. Right now, between our close, dear neighbors, Thailand and Cambodia, using it on each other. We and India, very unfortunate, we're not using weapons, we're using fists and sticks. But that's, I think, calmed down. Three days ago, our Navy just locked a Japanese fighter jet, or maybe two or three of them. In military terms, locking means you've already been shot down. So we're using on each other, why?

The second characteristic about Asia is we're very diverse. And as we all know, diversity is a strength, but also a challenge. And the United States falls apart because of diversity. Europe has fallen apart because of diversity within. We are diverse. So I find it very interesting that when our General Secretary, Xi Jinping, visited Malaysia a few months ago, they announced a civilizational dialogue between Confucianism and Islam. I think it's very important. We, China and Islam, I think will be one of the most important critical relationships in this new world. And we're just beginning this dialogue, how we in China and Islam are very close now, strategically, value drive, value in terms, so we're diverse.

And in Asia, pluralistic, very different amongst us, but we do share one thing in common among us, that we don't want to be told what to do. We don't want a hegemon telling us how to run our politics, how to treat our women, who should marry whom, how many sexes you have in your countries. We don't want that. We want Islam to be Islam. We want China to be Confucian or Socialists, whatever we decide. So we share that in common. So can we build through these kind of dialogues, can we build a truly diverse and multipolar way of globalization? So look forward to hearing everyone's views. Thank you.

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