英国正式发布解封计划：最快6月开学，7月重开餐厅​

　　来源 英伦投资客ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国累计确诊219，183，累计死亡31，855之际，英国首相刚刚正式宣布了详细的解封计划。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　解读方案之前，先看最新数据。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　过去24小时，英国新增确诊3923，新增死亡269（医院内+医院外），新增检测92，837次，新增检测64，362人，确诊率6.1%。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　今日其它数据图表列于文末，接下来重点看看英国封锁和解封方面的最新消息。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　先解释一下，英国政府已于5月7日宣布继续封城三周，这意味着至少在5月7日-5月28日时间里，英国实质上还是处于封锁状态。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　但与此同时，英国政府此前也承诺将会放松一小部分封锁措施，并向大众公布完整的解封计划，具体细节已由首相鲍里斯于几个小时前正式公布。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　换句话来说，英国首相刚刚只是公布了解封计划，并不代表英国马上就要全面解封了。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　至于具体细节，虽然之前被媒体曝光的差不多了，但到底事实如何，还是要听首相亲自说。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　5月10日英国时间晚7点，英国首相鲍里斯亲自宣读了疫情以来首个解封计划。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　完整视频如下：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　完整全文如下：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国首相解封演讲，上下滑动查看ALG豪仕阅读网

　　It is now almost two months since the people of this country began to put up with restrictions on their freedom – your freedom – of a kind that we have never seen before in peace or war。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And you have shown the good sense to support those rules overwhelmingly。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　You have put up with all the hardships of that programme of social distancing。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Because you understand that as things stand， and as the experience of every other country has shown， it’s the only way to defeat the coronavirus - the most vicious threat this country has faced in my lifetime。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And though the death toll has been tragic， and the suffering immense。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And though we grieve for all those we have lost。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　It is a fact that by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst case scenario was half a million fatalities。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And it is thanks to your effort and sacrifice in stopping the spread of this disease that the death rate is coming down and hospital admissions are coming down。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And thanks to you we have protected our NHS and saved many thousands of lives。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And so I know - you know - that it would be madness now to throw away that achievement by allowing a second spike。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must stay alert。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must continue to control the virus and save lives。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And yet we must also recognise that this campaign against the virus has come at colossal cost to our way of life。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We can see it all around us in the shuttered shops and abandoned businesses and darkened pubs and restaurants。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And there are millions of people who are both fearful of this terrible disease， and at the same time also fearful of what this long period of enforced inactivity will do to their livelihoods and their mental and physical wellbeing。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　To their futures and the futures of their children。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　So I want to provide tonight - for you - the shape of a plan to address both fears。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Both to beat the virus and provide the first sketch of a road map for reopening society。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　A sense of the way ahead， and when and how and on what basis we will take the decisions to proceed。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　I will be setting out more details in Parliament tomorrow and taking questions from the public in the evening。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　I have consulted across the political spectrum， across all four nations of the UK。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And though different parts of the country are experiencing the pandemic at different rates。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And though it is right to be flexible in our response。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　I believe that as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom – Scotland， England， Wales， Northern Ireland， there is a strong resolve to defeat this together。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And today a general consensus on what we could do。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And I stress could。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Because although we have a plan， it is a conditional plan。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And since our priority is to protect the public and save lives， we cannot move forward unless we satisfy the five tests。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must protect our NHS。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must see sustained falls in the death rate。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must see sustained and considerable falls in the rate of infection。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must sort out our challenges in getting enough PPE to the people who need it， and yes， it is a global problem but we must fix it。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And last， we must make sure that any measures we take do not force the reproduction rate of the disease - the R - back up over one， so that we have the kind of exponential growth we were facing a few weeks ago。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And to chart our progress and to avoid going back to square one， we are establishing a new Covid Alert System run by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And that Covid Alert Level will be determined primarily by R and the number of coronavirus cases。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And in turn that Covid Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures – the lower the level the fewer the measures。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　The higher the level， the tougher and stricter we will have to be。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　There will be five alert levels。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Level One means the disease is no longer present in the UK and Level Five is the most critical – the kind of situation we could have had if the NHS had been overwhelmed。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Over the period of the lockdown we have been in Level Four， and it is thanks to your sacrifice we are now in a position to begin to move in steps to Level Three。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And as we go everyone will have a role to play in keeping the R down。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　By staying alert and following the rules。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And to keep pushing the number of infections down there are two more things we must do。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We must reverse rapidly the awful epidemics in care homes and in the NHS， and though the numbers are coming down sharply now， there is plainly much more to be done。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And if we are to control this virus， then we must have a world-beating system for testing potential victims， and for tracing their contacts。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　So that – all told - we are testing literally hundreds of thousands of people every day。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We have made fast progress on testing – but there is so much more to do now， and we can。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　When this began， we hadn’t seen this disease before， and we didn’t fully understand its effects。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　With every day we are getting more and more data。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We are shining the light of science on this invisible killer， and we will pick it up where it strikes。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Because our new system will be able in time to detect local flare-ups – in your area – as well as giving us a national picture。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And yet when I look at where we are tonight， we have the R below one， between 0.5 and 0.9 – but potentially only just below one。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And though we have made progress in satisfying at least some of the conditions I have given。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We have by no means fulfilled all of them。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And so no， this is not the time simply to end the lockdown this week。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Instead we are taking the first careful steps to modify our measures。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And the first step is a change of emphasis that we hope that people will act on this week。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We said that you should work from home if you can， and only go to work if you must。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We now need to stress that anyone who can’t work from home， for instance those in construction or manufacturing， should be actively encouraged to go to work。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And we want it to be safe for you to get to work。 So you should avoid public transport if at all possible – because we must and will maintain social distancing， and capacity will therefore be limited。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　So work from home if you can， but you should go to work if you can’t work from home。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And to ensure you are safe at work we have been working to establish new guidance for employers to make workplaces COVID-secure。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And when you do go to work， if possible do so by car or even better by walking or bicycle。 But just as with workplaces， public transport operators will also be following COVID-secure standards。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And from this Wednesday， we want to encourage people to take more and even unlimited amounts of outdoor exercise。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　You can sit in the sun in your local park， you can drive to other destinations， you can even play sports but only with members of your own household。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　You must obey the rules on social distancing and to enforce those rules we will increase the fines for the small minority who break them。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And so every day， with ever increasing data， we will be monitoring the R and the number of new infections， and the progress we are making， and if we as a nation begin to fulfil the conditions I have set out， then in the next few weeks and months we may be able to go further。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　In step two – at the earliest by June 1 – after half term – we believe we may be in a position to begin the phased reopening of shops and to get primary pupils back into schools， in stages， beginning with reception， Year 1 and Year 6。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Our ambition is that secondary pupils facing exams next year will get at least some time with their teachers before the holidays。 And we will shortly be setting out detailed guidance on how to make it work in schools and shops and on transport。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And step three - at the earliest by July - and subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice； if and only if the numbers support it， we will hope to re-open at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places， provided they are safe and enforce social distancing。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Throughout this period of the next two months we will be driven not by mere hope or economic necessity。 We are going to be driven by the science， the data and public health。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And I must stress again that all of this is conditional， it all depends on a series of big Ifs。 It depends on all of us – the entire country – to follow the advice， to observe social distancing， and to keep that R down。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And to prevent re-infection from abroad， I am serving notice that it will soon be the time – with transmission significantly lower – to impose quarantine on people coming into this country by air。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And it is because of your efforts to get the R down and the number of infections down here， that this measure will now be effective。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And of course we will be monitoring our progress locally， regionally， and nationally and if there are outbreaks， if there are problems， we will not hesitate to put on the brakes。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We have been through the initial peak – but it is coming down the mountain that is often more dangerous。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We have a route， and we have a plan， and everyone in government has the all-consuming pressure and challenge to save lives， restore livelihoods and gradually restore the freedoms that we need。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　But in the end this is a plan that everyone must make work。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And when I look at what you have done already。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　The patience and common sense you have shown。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　The fortitude of the elderly whose isolation we all want to end as fast as we can。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　The incredible bravery and hard work of our NHS staff， our care workers。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　The devotion and self-sacrifice of all those in every walk of life who are helping us to beat this disease。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Police， bus drivers， train drivers， pharmacists， supermarket workers， road hauliers， bin collectors， cleaners， security guards， postal workers， our teachers and a thousand more。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　The scientists who are working round the clock to find a vaccine。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　When I think of the millions of everyday acts of kindness and thoughtfulness that are being performed across this country。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And that have helped to get us through this first phase。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　I know that we can use this plan to get us through the next。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And if we can’t do it by those dates， and if the alert level won’t allow it， we will simply wait and go on until we have got it right。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We will come back from this devilish illness。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　We will come back to health， and robust health。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　And though the UK will be changed by this experience， I believe we can be stronger and better than ever before。 More resilient， more innovative， more economically dynamic， but also more generous and more sharing。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　But for now we must stay alert， control the virus and save lives。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　Thank you very much。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　不想看视频和全文的读者可以直接看我们的总结。根据首相的全国讲话，英国将分三步逐步解封：ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　1。 第一步，从5月13日（周三）开始：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　鼓励无法在家工作的民众回归工作，特别是建筑和制造业工人，但在工作时要遵守社交隔离，且在通勤时避免乘坐公共交通工具，尽量选择自行车和开车出行，步行最佳。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　政府为雇主制定了新的防疫指导方针和防护用品规范，以确保雇员的健康和安全。据英媒后续报道，该规范将要求雇主为员工提供口罩。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　对于那些可以在家工作的人，接下来还是要继续在家工作。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　取消每人每天外出运动一次的限制，民众将被允许在公园里晒太阳，也可以开车去其它地点，但前提是只能和同住的人开展运动，这一措施将于5月13日正式生效。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　外出时必须保持2米并遵守严格的社交隔离措施，违者将被除以更严厉的惩罚，最高可达3200英镑，约2.8万人民币。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　2。 第二步，最早从6月1日开始：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　如果疫情好转，英国政府将会分阶段重开商店，并且让小学生最早于6月1日重返学校。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　首先回到学校的是小学学前班（reception）、一年级和六年级的学生。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　其次是明年要考试的中学生，政府希望让这部分学生至少能在暑假之前和自己的老师有所互动。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　具体的复学计划要到五月下旬公布。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　3。 第三步，最早从7月开始：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　如果疫情数据进一步好转的话，英国预计最早于7月重开部分酒店、餐厅和咖啡馆，并开放部分公共场所，只要确保人们能够遵守社交隔离规则。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　鲍里斯在讲话中特别没有提到酒吧，这也被英媒解读为酒吧业的坏消息，即酒吧至少要关门2个月以上。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国政府发布五级警报系统，以确定解封日期。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　大家可能发现了，鲍里斯对6月1日开学和7月重开餐厅并不100%肯定，在前提中特别强调了需要在疫情好转时才会这样做。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　对此，鲍里斯也在讲话中做出了详细解释，即未来的解封措施不一定会完全按照计划进行。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　接下来，政府会定期对疫情进行评估，并根据最新情况作出政策调整。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　对此，鲍里斯特别发布了全新的五级警报系统。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　鲍里斯表示，为避免重蹈覆辙，英国建立了由政府生物安全中心设计的五级警报系统。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　警报级别由传染率R和新冠病例数决定，级别越低，封锁措施越少。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　具体细节如下：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　第五级：即疫情最严重的最高等级，传染率R值高于1，国家处于高危状态，意味着NHS被击穿，这时候需要重新启用此前关闭的南丁格尔医院。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　第四级：为英国当前疫情所在等级（R值在0.6-0.9），这一级别时R低于1，但部分地区的R会高于1，NHS未被击穿，对应措施是继续封锁。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　第三级：病毒被控制，英国全部地区R值低于1，应对措施是有限地放松封锁。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　第二级：疫情明显得到控制，对应措施为：商店重开，办公室工作者复工，易感群体继续留在家里。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　第一级：英国不再有新冠，对应措施：恢复大型体育赛事，易感群体可以外出。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　结合上面提到的三步解封策略的话，鲍里斯表示，只有英国的新冠警报级别降到第三级，英国才会考虑进入第二步重开学校，否则将会停留在第一步。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　根据首相讲话，目前英国仍处于第四级警报，但正在逐步步入第三级。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　入境英国需强制隔离在鲍里斯今天的讲话中，他还表示，为了防止输入性病例，现在是时候对通过飞机进入英国的旅客进行隔离，这将大大降低新冠的传染率。鲍里斯在讲话中并没有提及具体细节，英媒称详细措施将会在明天发布。据英媒后续透露，英国将要求所有入境者进行14天的强制隔离，据路透社进一步消息，这一隔离计划将不包括法国。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英媒此前称这项措施将会在6月初正式启动，违者将面临高达1000英镑的罚款或被遣返回国。除了以上重点内容，首相讲话还有以下要点：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　鲍里斯表示，感谢民众在过去两个月以来遵守了隔离规则，尽管这一过程非常艰难。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　这一隔离措施避免了灾难，并防止死亡病例进一步上升，要知道当时预计的最坏情况是50万人死亡。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国不同地区的疫情状况不同，因此各地区可以灵活应对，鲍里斯相信英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰将会共同击败新冠病毒，这一点有深意，后面会讲。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　重提英国大规模解封需要满足的五大条件：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　1。 必须保护NHS不被击穿ALG豪仕阅读网

　　2。 必须看到死亡率持续下降ALG豪仕阅读网

　　3。 必须看到感染率持续和大量下降ALG豪仕阅读网

　　4。测试数量和防护设备能够满足需求ALG豪仕阅读网

　　5。任何措施都不会引发导致NHS被击穿的第二波高峰ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　说完首相的最新讲话，我们再看一下过去24小时英国疫情方面的其它进展：正式更换抗疫口号今日，英国官方正式更换了抗疫口号。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　从此前的Stay Home（待在家里）—Protect the NHS（保护NHS）—Save Lives（拯救生命）。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　改成了Stay Alert（保持警惕）—Controlthe Virus（控制病毒）—Save Lives（拯救生命）ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　这一改变和鲍里斯今天的讲话相对应，意在鼓励不得不出门工作的人复工，以复苏英国的经济。讲话结束后，鲍里斯也更改了推特名字。把后缀改成了Stay Alert保持警惕。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　另由于部分媒体和政客质疑Stay Alert过于模糊，官方还发出了细节定义，解释什么是保持警惕：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　尽可能待在家里ALG豪仕阅读网

　　如果外出，尽量保持2米ALG豪仕阅读网

　　尽可能在家办公ALG豪仕阅读网

　　勤洗手ALG豪仕阅读网

　　减少与他人接触的次数ALG豪仕阅读网

　　如果你或者同住的人出现症状，所有人必须隔离。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　反对新口号，苏格兰、威尔士先后发声在今天的讲话中，鲍里斯特别提到英国不同地区的疫情状况不同，因此各地区可以灵活应对。鲍里斯表示，英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰将会共同击败新冠病毒。首相这一言论和上述地区领袖近期频频发声有关。今天，苏格兰首席部长率先对鲍里斯呛声，一大早就发推称，她从周日报纸上才知道鲍里斯要发布新口号了，暗示自己并不提前知道英国政府要改口号的消息。她还表示，“鲍里斯当然可以决定什么对英格兰最合适，但根据抗疫现状，留在家里拯救生命仍然是我传达给苏格兰的口号。”很显然，苏格兰不想改口号。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　此外，斯特金还特意在今天于苏格兰举办的发布会上说：“我搞不懂“Stay Albert保持警惕”是什么意思，这有点模糊。”ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　斯特金还特意把“留在家里”的大字打在了背后的公屏上，并表示：“苏格兰会继续使用Stay at Home的口号”。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　除此之外，斯特金还强调：“我们不能过早地放松封锁措施，以及释放让人感到疑惑的信息。”“如果及早放松封锁措施，会有更多人因此而死去，我们决不能冒这个险。”威尔士首席大臣德雷克福德也保留了原标语，他表示，“我将向威尔士人民传达的信息是，大家必须警惕病毒持续带来的危害。”“因此与他人减少联系，为了减少对自己和他人的风险，留在家中仍然是最重要的保护途径。”ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国政府将呼吁民众自制“口罩”据《电讯报》报道，英国政府明天还将发布另一防疫措施。政府将明确建议人们在搭乘公共交通工具或去往商店时佩戴面部遮挡物。面部遮挡物包括围巾，头巾和手帕，人们可以自行制作。ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　关于英国疫情，过去24小时还有以下信息值得关注：ALG豪仕阅读网

　　根据追踪APP的测试反馈，英国可能会改变原来的追踪模式，并将APP改为苹果和谷歌都能使用的“去中心化”模式。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　由于白金汉宫将会在夏天对公众关闭，女王也会离开公众视线长达数月，并将继续长时间地住在温莎城堡。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国皇家发言人表示，在疫情结束之前，女王不会参加任何社交活动，也不会对任何国家进行国事访问。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国四大工会组织今天联合致函该报警告称，除非鲍里斯同意在全国进行一场卫生安全革命，否则工会不会建议属下300万名会员复工。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　工会组织还表示，他们要求企业雇主进行安全风险评估，并提出具体措施以确保员工在工作单位的健康安全。ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国将在本土重建部分药物供应链，自产包括肾脏透析液在内的关键药物，ALG豪仕阅读网

　　*最后附刚刚更新的疫情图表，包括英国病例增长、地区分布。英国每日报告的确诊走势ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国每日报告的死亡走势：近两日有所下降ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英格兰医院内每日发生的真实死亡走势：4月8日达到峰值，而后稳定下降今天新增的269死亡中有33人发生在过去24小时，其余为补报（下图橙色）ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国确诊，住院，死亡数据图ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国每日确诊率ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　英国英格兰地区确诊分布ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　刚刚更新的全英确诊具体地区分布（包括英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士、北爱、医护人员）ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　全英各地区每十万人确诊分布（从高到低）ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　苏格兰地区确诊具体地区分布ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　苏格兰地区确诊具体城市分布ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　威尔士地区确诊具体地区分布ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　伦敦累计25829例，具体分布如下：ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　过去24小时，英格兰地区单日新增确诊排名前三：Leeds （+37）；Essex（+34）；Norfolk（+34）；ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网

　　全英具体病例分布如下：ALG豪仕阅读网

ALG豪仕阅读网